Fire Risk and Climate Change in the San Juan Islands

By Isara Greacen, Climate Communications Intern at Lopez Community Land Trust

Climate change can significantly heighten the risk of natural disasters, particularly wildfires which pose a concern to the San Juan Islands. NASA notes that climate change affects not only average temperatures but also extreme temperatures, increasing the likelihood of weather-related natural disasters. As global temperatures rise, we face less cold weather and a greater probability of hot and record-hot weather. This shift, combined with increased temperature variability, results in more frequent and severe weather conditions. For the San Juan Islands, these changes translate to a heightened risk of wildfires. The State of Washington’s Department of Ecology explains that “climate change causes forest fuels to be drier and more ready to burn.” They report that the number of large fires in the western United States has doubled between 1984 and 2015, attributing this increase to hotter, drier conditions that also set the stage for more human-ignited wildfires.

Additionally, projections cited by the State of Washington’s Department of Ecology show that “an average annual rise in temperature of one degree Celsius may increase the area burned in a typical year by as much as 600 percent.” Factors contributing to this increased wildfire risk that apply to the San Juan islands include prolonged heat waves, drier summers, increased drought, lower soil moisture content, and the spread of insects that kill or weaken trees. The Department of Ecology warns, “If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, we can expect more wildfires, for longer seasons.”

San Juan County faces some risk of various natural disasters, including earthquakes, tsunamis, and potentially extreme storms. Increased fire risk, which is the most exacerbated by climate change, is a pressing concern. Paul Anderson, executive director of the San Juan Islands Conservation District, shares “Wildfire risk and being prepared for wildfire is at the top of mind for a lot of people.” He explains that “with extended droughts, more competition for water, and hotter, drier summers, we are going to be more prone to fire risk.”

Brendan Cowan, Emergency Management Director of San Juan County speaks to the importance of understanding the science behind these risks. “I don’t think anyone knows yet exactly how that’s going to play out, but we certainly have to be on the lookout for that,” he says. However, Cowan remains optimistic, adding, “But I do think that if we are thoughtful and careful in how we prepare for that and avoid starting fires in the first place, I think it’s manageable.”

Lopez Island Fire Chief Adam Bigby cautions about the implications of longer, drier summers and dwindling water supplies. “The big thing that concerns me is we’re going to have longer, drier summers,” Bigby says. “We don’t have the water available even now, so what’s that going to look like in the future?”

Carson Sprenger, General Manager of Rain Shadow, a company specializing in ecological restoration, echoes these concerns, noting that the current vegetation composition on the islands makes the landscape highly fire-prone under dry and windy conditions. “I think a lot about drought and fire with the current composition of our vegetation,” he says, adding that changes in precipitation patterns and heavy rainfall events in late spring could further stress the ecosystem.”

David Bill from Midnight’s Farm on Lopez Island also highlights the compounding effects of climate change on fire risk. He observes, “It’s kind of a multiple storm where you have wetter springs, which make for more vegetation and grass paired with drier summers to make it great fuel for fires. Also partly as a result of climate change, we are having more people coming up to the islands and people are the cause of fire in the San Juan islands. So with climate change you have multiple causes to increase our risk of fire,” Bill explains. He adds, “With climate change, you also get more winds, and more variability,” making fires harder to control. ” Bill explains.

Regarding the county’s current state of preparedness, Cowan asserts, “Overall, our community does a better job of [preparing ourselves against natural disasters] than many other places.” He attributes this to the islanders’ independent mindset, noting, “People who choose to live on islands usually have a desire to be self-sufficient and use common sense and understand that we live in a place where our connection to the mainland is tenuous… we’ve all seen how the ferry can be disrupted and power can go out.” However, Cowan emphasizes, “There’s still a lot of work to do.”

Bigby echoes this sentiment, acknowledging that while the community is “pretty prepared day to day,” long-term preparedness is lacking. “The summers are getting longer and sometimes homeowners forget about the risk,” Bigby warns. He highlights the tendency for some residents to become complacent, neglecting property maintenance and engaging in risky behaviors such as lighting fires during unsuitable conditions.

Fortunately, San Juan County is already taking proactive measures to mitigate wildfire risks to protect our community. Paul Anderson, executive director of the San Juan Islands Conservation District, highlights the Wildfire Ready Neighbors program as a significant effort in wildfire prevention. “We have a large program running right now, called Wildfire Ready Neighbors, in partnership with the Department of Natural Resources (DNR),” Anderson explains. Through this initiative, landowners and homeowners can sign up for a free site assessment, during which experts evaluate properties and provide a report card on wildfire preparedness. The program also offers funding for landowners “to help with home hardening or general forest health in the proximity of homes,” Anderson adds. Bigby agrees,“Get your homes assessed through the Wildfire Ready Neighbors program. That is a big step in the right direction,” he advises. 

Additionally, Anderson points out the county’s work in reducing fuel loads in forests, particularly by removing Douglas Fir trees from Garry Oak stands. “Garry Oak habitats are crucial for biodiversity, supporting species like the Persius Duskywing butterfly,” he says. “We’re taking out overgrown Douglas Fir around Garry Oaks and doing a lot of fuel reduction on public and private lands throughout the islands.” 

Anderson also speaks to the important educational component that is currently taking place in our community. He explains how the county is “working with landowners who have large forests to [create] forest management plans and bring them funding to implement those plans and help them afford the cost of hiring contractors to thin fuels and treat them once they’re down.” Through this, land owners are educated about how to reduce potential fire fuel from around their properties. He adds “It all costs money so we’re helping landowners do all that.”

Rain Shadow Consulting on Orcas Island is another valuable resource for improving forest health and reducing fire risk in our islands. Carson Sprenger, General Manager of Rain Shadow Consulting, explains they started in 2005 as a “contracting company specifically looking at ecological restoration, habitat management, and generally like forest conservation issues.” Their early work consisted of “conserving oak trees and understanding the relationship between fire and tree density,” and looking at “indigenous burning practices and how that helped the forest.” The company has since expanded its work to include general tree care, forest restoration, and implementing indigenous burning practices to maintain forest health.

David Bill of Midnight’s Farm discusses the role of their composting facility in managing excess woody material. “We provide a place for people to bring excess wood if they’re trying to reduce the fuel load around their homes,” Bill says. The farm repurposes this material into useful products that support plant growth. Bill also highlights their exploration of biochar as a sustainable solution. “If you’re trying to remove a lot of woody material in San Juan County, what are you going to do with it? We all know that it’s hard to get on the ferries and so relying on shipping a bunch of woody products off the island is super challenging. So, biochar is one ‘deal with it right here’ solution,” he explains. Bill also adds that they are interested in “exploring how we can incorporate soils that are beneficial to increasing the organic matter and storing more carbon in the soils which are a natural carbon sink.”

The Lopez Community Land Trust (LCLT) is setting an example in building homes with fire risk in mind and taking proactive steps. LCLT Director Sandy Bishop explains the importance of creating defensible space around homes as a crucial part of their fire-ready approach. “We try and build to be fire ready, in particular [making sure] that houses all have defensible space,” Bishop says. Defensible space, as she explains, involves maintaining a clear area of at least 5 to 10 feet around a house, free of vegetation or flammable materials. “You can create a barrier which fire cannot bypass by having a ring of rock or other inflammable material,” Bishop notes, pointing out the rock and concrete perimeter around the LCLT office as an example.

In addition to defensible space, LCLT incorporates other fire-cautious building practices, such as using metal roofs on their houses. “They say what happens in fire is it starts going from treetop to treetop, and then it starts spitting embers and throwing them about,” Bishop explains. “So, if you have a house that is metal or straw bale, [fire] can’t really do anything.” To further enhance fire safety, LCLT has the fire marshal assess all of their houses to ensure that they follow best practices around defensible space. Bishop explains that the last fire assessment was completed in 2019. 

While it is clear that San Juan County is stepping up efforts to prepare for wildfire risks, significant challenges remain. Brendan Cowan, the county’s Emergency Management Director, emphasizes the importance of proactive thinking. “Disasters happen. We have to rebuild. My piece is trying to encourage property owners and the government to think proactively,” Cowan says. He underscores that there is no single solution to preparedness, advocating for diverse approaches. “One of the big things I try to say to folks is that there is no one right way to do it. Lots of different people have different ways to be resilient, and they are all right. As long as you have thought about it and have a plan, that’s great,” Cowan explains. Bigby echoes the need for individual responsibility. “People worry too much about their neighbors and not enough about their own property,” Bigby says. 

Bigby, Sprenger and Anderson all emphasize the importance of reducing fuel load both on personal property and on public lands. Anderson says, “Reducing fuel loads is critical. Our forests haven’t burned in 150 years, leading to overstocked forests with unhealthy trees,” Anderson explains. He stresses the importance of regular thinning to maintain healthier, more fire-resistant ecosystems. 

Sprenger also speaks to the importance of healing the land.“As landowners, we have a responsibility to heal the land. We need to reinvest in the land and forest,” Sprenger adds. He explains that “previous owners or maybe even our parents or our grandparents thought about forests in a different way [than we do now] and many of them,  no fault of theirs, harvested a lot of the trees for money and didn’t put much back into improving the indigenous forest. And oftentimes people just didn’t know. So, a lot of the monetary value [of the land]  has already been captured and it’s time to reinvest in the land….I think that it really is really on all of our shoulders.”

David Bill also adds “We are a wealthy, high-emitting community, and we need to take responsibility for reducing our greenhouse gasses,” by addressing the root causes.

 Bigby also raises concerns about the shortage of volunteers and funding for the fire department. “Our departments are underfunded, understaffed, and our equipment is old” He explains.“It’s important to understand that when fire departments do ask for funding, they’re not asking because they are just trying to put money away, they are asking because they need to keep ahead and keep equipment, facilities and everything replaced on a timely schedule so that they are available to respond when the time comes. There’s nothing worse than getting in your fire engine and having it not start, which actually happened on one of our fires this morning.” Bigby also speaks to the need for volunteers. “All of our fire departments in San Juan County are primarily volunteer-based and we are low on volunteers,” he adds. “Every agency here is having trouble keeping the number of volunteers that they need for fire and EMS. So that makes response less than reliable.” He recommends that “Countywide and statewide, a recruitment campaign would probably be the biggest thing I would focus on.”

San Juan County is taking action to address the growing wildfire risks fueled by climate change. Through initiatives like Wildfire Ready Neighbors and fuel load reduction, the community is taking important steps towards preparedness. However, as climate threats increase, ongoing efforts are needed. Local leaders stress the importance of individual responsibility, ecosystem restoration, and securing adequate funding and volunteers. While challenges remain, the county’s proactive approach and community resilience offer hope for protecting its landscapes and way of life from the escalating wildfire threat.

Isara Greacen is a Climate Communications Intern for the Lopez Community Land Trust. She grew up on Lopez Island and now attends Scripps College.